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Market Views

  • India Inc over the last 3 years has seen multiple shocks – from demonetisation to key reforms like GST, RERA etc to credit freeze in aftermath of wholesale NBFC unable to get access to credit to current lockdown amidst the global supply and demand shock unleashed by Coronavirus. In the long journey of corporate India, these events almost seems like a big RESET button. A call to significantly change business practices, realign key business priorities in a changing landscape and massive consolidation across sectors.

 

  • ·       Covid19 – while initial impact was localised to Chinese economy and therefore the supply shock given large export from China, the spread of virus globally now risks creating a demand shock as well. While global coordination of policy makers and containment of virus and improvement in drugs to counter will reduce the longer term impacts of this shock, near-term demand and supply chains remain frozen amidst a significant drop in economic activity.

 

  • ·       While Indian government & RBI have announced few measures, we expect more measures to be announced given the unprecedented nature of events led by Covid 19. Amidst this uncertainty, Indian equities have seen large up and down moves in recent months.

 

  • ·       While near term uncertainty induces volatility in asset prices, in the long run, wealth creation in equities is a function as how businesses can profitably grow over their cost of capital sustainably. Given the long-range of reforms introduced as well as likely relief measures by government & RBI, we believe longer-term prospects of Indian equities is quite encouraging and we would advise investors to benefit from such induced volatility.

 

  • ·       Time in the market is more important than timing the market - recently, markets volatility has moved up and investors can benefit from this volatility by focusing on disciplined investing and asset allocation.

•       One of the biggest fallouts of the Covid crisis was seen in April with oil prices (WTI Crude) going into negative territory as inventory buildup, due to lack of demand, created a storage problem in the oil markets.

•       The lock down in India has been extended for the second time in India till the 17th of May, however several concessions were provided based on the classification of the entire country into Green, Orange and Red zones, depending on the number of cases in each region.

 

•       In the mutual fund space, Franklin Templeton wound up 6 of their debt schemes with over 30000 Crs of AUM as of 31st Mar 2020, citing inability to meet redemptions due to market liquidity conditions as a result of the Covid-19 crisis.

 

•       Earlier during the month RBI has announced several measures including a cut of reverse repo rate by 25 bps to 3.75 percent, LTRO 2 of 50000 cr that could be lent to NBFC’s and MFI’s

 

•       The current Gsec yield curve is quite steep. However we do expect further RBI action to introduce some amount of flattening.

 

·         The geo-political Risk which was triggered due to Coronavirus in Wuhan has become the 6 sigma event as feared. The slowdown fears are quickly becoming a reality.

·         The falling commodity prices and bond rally globally will help keep Indian rates lower.  This is positive for trade deficit however due to equity selloff INR will remain under pressure, which is manageable as RBI has enough reserves to fight the same.

·         If India continues to remain relatively unaffected from the COVID-19, it could spell positive for the country in attracting capital, tourism and jobs.

·         We believe we have seen peak of inflation in February  2020 with head line CPI at 7.59% . However based on current prices we expect the same to ease off to 7% and gradually trend towards the comfort zone. This will be positive from interest rates point of view given the overall environment inflation is what will be chased globally

·         The RBI announced LTRO worth 1lac cr which was much potent tool than a rate cut and we believe this LTRO will pull down and anchor the short term rates much closer to overnight rates as 1 Lac cr of fresh money will lead to at least 2-3 lac cr worth of demand for assets leading to spread compression.

·         In a nut shell, key driver for returns will be corporate spread-compression or flattening of the yield curve. It will start with AAA/PSU followed by NBFC/HFC like Bajaj/HDFC; and then, it may percolate to lower grade NBFC and other corporate bonds. 

Weekly Market Round Up : An overview of last week's market. #KMFMarketRoundUp (15th May 2020 - 22nd May 2020)
26/05/2020 13:59:07
Kotak Standard Multicap Fund – It’s Focused! A fund that strives to focus on the most promising sectors in the ongoing market cycle across market capitalisation.
21/05/2020 06:33:09
Growth Option With SWP - An Attractive Solution By Ms. Lakshmi Iyer, CIO (Debt) & Head Products.
19/05/2020 14:11:08
 

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